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Wednesday, October 27, 2004

UPDATE: Karl Rove Smiles on Florida

Kevin Drum in Washington Monthly magazine sheds some light on the GOP's obsession with suppressing the minority vote. From today's Political Animal posting:
Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio has just finished a survey of 12 battleground states and finds Bush and Kerry tied with 47% of the vote apiece. But when he weights for minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Kerry is ahead 49.2%-45.7%. And when he further updates the weighting to take into account the most recent census results, Kerry is ahead 49.9%-44.7%.

As Fabrizio blandly puts it, "It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen. Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President's campaign." More accurately, if Fabrizio is right — that Kerry is ahead by 5% overall in the battleground states — Kerry is a sure winner on Nov. 2.
If this does not inspire you to get every Democrat you know out to vote, then nothing will.


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